Wednesday, June 06, 2007

NBA Playoffs: Exact Series Outcome

I just made a great bet in the NBA Playoffs.

Exact Series Outcome:
CLE to win in 7 +3800 or 2.6%

I think fair value is about +1655 or 5.7%

CLE is a big underdog to win the series. The mid-market line is about CLE +470 or about 17.5%. Given they are such a big underdog, it makes logical sense that if CLE were to win the series, they would have to win in a struggle: thus 7 games is the most likely number of games it would take for CLE to win. Let's assume for a second that CLE has the same probability of winning the series in 4, 5, 6 or 7 games. If that's the case, then take 17.5% / 4 = 4.4%.

Even using that very conservative estimate, CLE in 7 at +3800 or 2.6% has edge.

Of course, CLE in 7 is much more likely than CLE in 4, so the edge is far greater than that. The place I made the wager no longer has that line, they moved the line down in reaction to the wager. But the line is still juicy (they won't allow me to bet it again even after the move).

The CLE in 7 at +3800 bet is likely to lose. After all, I only give it about a 5.7% chance of winning. But whether it wins or loses, its a fantastic bet.