Some prop bets have horrible lines

I love prop bets as they are interesting to think about and sometimes offer value. But sometimes the lines are just so ridiculous. Here is an example:

LA Lakers to win game 3 and WIN series +175

In order for this prop to win, the Lakers have to win Game 3 and then also win the series. Given that they have won Game 3, they are huge favorites to win the series, but the problem here is that the money line for Game 3 alone is Lakers +210! Any bettor that bets +175 on this prop should seriously consider burning their money instead, it would probably be more fun.

Updates to tables/charts and other random thoughts

Over the last few months, I've received a few emails asking if I had or if I was going to update some of the tables and charts in Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting. I have not updated any tables so far. If I do, I will post it on this blog.

Random thoughts
It is only May, but it is already time to start working on NFL projections!

I don't know why the media is so willing to quickly dismiss the Walsh-Goodell meeting. They seem to think that it's a useless meeting and think what Goodell will say afterwards is already predetermined. I think that is just jumping to conclusions for the sake of having to fill airtime.

The NBA playoffs has been interesting. Lebron James makes Kevin Garnett look like an ordinary player. The Spurs looked old just a few weeks ago, now they look refreshed and experienced. Why are the Jazz a bigger underdog by 2 points in Game 5 than they were in Game 2, especially given that Kobe has some back issues? If I didn't already have Utah in series bets, I'd seriously consider betting them in the pointspread in Game 5. I bet very few NBA games outright, and honestly have no documented winning record (or any real documented record to speak of on straight point spread plays), so take that for what it is worth.

Scoring has been lower in baseball. Is there a true reason behind it or is it just some randomness. I see people looking at these numbers which is fine...but some are breaking down the data too fine. The more you break down the data, the more randomness can play a part, so be careful with looking only at Petco Park data in 2008 for example.

Home Court Advantage in the NBA Playoffs

The Home Court Advantage in the NBA playoffs seem to be stronger this year with all home teams winning every game so far in the 2nd round. I wouldn't put too much weight on that though. In my opinion, it is just randomness. Remember, the home teams were all favoritess in their games in Round 2, so 11-0 isn't as incredible as it sounds. Although I admit it is a nice 10-1 run against-the-spread. Still, I think this is just due to randomness as opposed to a change in the funadamental nature of home court advantage in the playoffs. Betting on the home teams based on this small sample size is using randomness over a short term to dictate a change in the fundamentals, and that is a mistake.

Historical stats on ESPN

I was watching SportsCenter on ESPN last night. After showing the Hornets and Pistons go up 2 games to 0 in their respective series, they showed the number of times the home team that were up 2-0 won the series in 4, 5, 6 and 7 games...as well as the number of times the home team lost the series.

How meaningful are these numbers when it comes to the Hornets and Pistorns? Without any other information about the teams or other valuation numbers, I think they are pretty good. But we do have more information.

The Detroit Pistons were 6.5- and 6-point favorites in their games against the Orlando Magic.
The Hornets were 3-point favorites in each of their games against the San Antonio Spurs.

Assuming a 4-point home court advantage in the playoffs, and a zigzag effect of one point for game 3 when down 2-0 going back home, that would make the lines for game 3 about:

Orlando -2.5 Detroit
San Antonio -6 New Orleans

These quick estimates may be off a little bit, but they should be pretty close. San Antonio will be a bigger favorite than Orlando in game 3 and probably in game 4 as well. And if there is a game 5 or other future games, San Antonio will probably have a higher chance to win each of their games than Orlando. So San Antonio has a higher chance of winning their series than Orlando.

There wasn't any need to use point spreads to make that judgement. This is probably obvious to any NBA fan. But this should also be obvious even if you don't know a single player on either team. And that makes the historical stats that ESPN shows not very meaningful.

NBA playoff series odds

With the playoffs well underway in the NBA, I wanted to remind readers of the Excel spreadsheet that is available for free at SharpSportsBetting.com. On the left margin, under "Links", click on Prop Tools. You will be able to save a file titled SSB_Prop_Analysis which includes other work that Stanford Wong has done. In the last tab on the right is the spreadsheet I made up to value NBA Playoff odds given certain inputs. The user has to put in the value of a point as well as the expected point spread for each game. It is a static spreadsheet, meaning that the point spreads is assumed to stay constant regardless of previous results in the series. In reality, NBA lines often follow a zig-zag pattern where the team that lost the previous game usually gets a half-point or full-point in their favor for the next game. So, keep that in mind. The spreadsheet, just like any formula with user inputs, is only as good as the inputs. As they say, garbage-in makes garbage-out.

Paying too much attention to the games

I've been paying too much attention to the baseball games. That sounds odd, but I think that is the case. I've been watching too many games, spending too much time marking my bets as wins and losses as they occur, and sitting on the couch just watching baseball all day long. I should be using that time into analysing teams, players and working on collecting data. It is really easy to watch and keep score as the games are played. Watching games can be useful, but I think it is only useful to a certain extent. So I'm kicking myself in the pants to get to work instead of sitting back and watching games.

nice article on the NBA MVP

In past posts, I've gotten on Bill Simmons - and more specifically ESPN.com - about all the Boston-centric stuff written in his ESPN.com pieces. So I've got to give him and ESPN.com credit for his recent columns over the past few months. I doubt if my input had anything to do with it, but I appreciate it nonetheless.

Simmons' column today is on his vote for the NBA MVP. It is a nice read - a long read. Not that it matters much, but I agree with his pick for the most deserving - Kevin Garnett of the Boston Celtics.