Wednesday, June 21, 2006

MLB: Team Totals

Betting on Team Totals in MLB is interesting and different than the other sports because of the fact the home team doesn't have to bat in the bottom of the 9th in order to win the game. Or they may bat in the 9th, but they don't have to finish the game with 3 outs...they can win off a walk off hit.

This makes for interesting Team Totals because situations like this can occur:

The moneyline is even money on a game.
Yet the away team is expected to score more runs than the home team in the team totals!

At first, this doesn't sound right. But once you start thinking about the bottom of the 9th and how that works for the home team, it starts to make a bit of sense. The home team will not bat in the bottom of the 9th if they are ahead after 8.5 innings. If the Team Total is 4, if the home team has already scored 4 runs, then that means they have erased an at bat to help it go over the team total of 4. But if the Teal Total is 4 for the away team, they still will bat in the top of the 9th regardless of the score. Also, if the game is tied, the home team in the last half of the ninth will end the game after they score the go-ahead run (unless it is a HR with men on base). But the away team will keep hitting until they get 3 outs.

The difference in the line isn't huge, but it is big enough to sometimes find value or not find any value.

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