Thursday, June 15, 2006

NBA Finals

Here are some plays I made after Game 4 of the NBA Finals:

DAL win in 6 or less: NO +141
I have the NO valued at +125, so I thought I was getting value. It isn't much, only 16 cents, but other bets (see below) set up where I thought I could hedge off a lot of risk at fair value or better than fair value. These are the type of bets I like to do. No handicapping involved, just looking at numbers and projecting future lines in future games. I may be wrong in some of them, that is the risk I'm taking.

DAL win in 6 games exactly: Yes +180
I actually thought I was losing a bit of value on this one. I had fair value at Yes +191, so I'm losing 11 cents (although realize the 11 cents at this level in the money line is worth less than if it was closer to even money like the first bet was). Why did I do it? Well, I made this wager along with other wagers that coincided at the same time. Without this wager, I would not have made other wagers in the same size as I did (I still would have made them, but smaller). So in essence, I didn't really think I was losing 11 cents on this one, just as I wasn't thinking that I was winning 16 cents in the first wager. I was thinking I was making 5 cents on the combination of the two. That's a bit simplistic as there were also other wagers involved, but hopefully that gets the point across.

Series last 7 games No -184
I think this is fair value. However, it hedges the first bet, and it was done in a smaller amount.

Game 4: DAL +117 Money Line
This wager also hedges the first bet and along with the last wager, reduces my exposure to zero in Game 4. Although all the values of each bet will change a lot after Game 4, I am expecting they will change equally enough that I won't win or lose no matter who wins. I will have tremendous risk in Game 5 well as risk in my assumptions of what the lines will be.

Series: DAL -380
With all the nubmers I put in, I actually think DAL is worth -389. So I pick up 9 cents on this one (again, 9 cents at this level is worth a lot less than 9 cents when the line is closer to pick'em). Not only was it positive EV, but I also needed the DAL exposure as a hedge against other wagers that were anti-DAL, so it works out perfectly.

For what it's worth, the assumptions I took to make these bets were:
Game 4: DAL 46.1% (+117...I bet +117 and needed it to hedge the anti-DAL bets)
Game 5: DAL 46.1% (if they win Game 4, they will be a bigger dog...if they lose Game 4, this may be a pick...I think on average, it will be the same given Game 4 is close to a pick'em)
Game 6: DAL 69.3%, roughly a 5.5 point favorite.
Game 7: DAL 67.5%, roughly 5 points.

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