Thursday, June 22, 2006

Take advantage of opportunities because they are fleeting

I found a book that had a fairly simple baseball prop that was off by 10 to 15 cents on about 3-4 games a day. After dong some research, I was very comfortable that they were systematically putting up slightly bad lines. I don't know if it was due to other players they had (who may have been betting the wrong side) and they were fading the line, or if they just made a mistake. However, I did know that these opportunities are fleeting. If I bet it and started to win, they would slowly adjust. Probably not after the first day or the first week...but after two-three weeks seeing my wagers and seeing me win (if I did win), they would start to adjust the line just slightly to eliminate the edge. When a prop is only off by 10 or 15 cents, just a small adjustment will take it from an advantageous play for the bettor to no edge. Knowing this, I bet their limits every day for the last month. I actually got a bit lucky and won at a slightly higher rate than I expected. This led the book to see the problem quicker and to adjust a bit quicker than I had hoped. It took about three weeks, but they are now adjusted to the point where it is rare for me to find a line that is off by 10 cents.

When I made my wagers, I thought I had two choices:
1. bet the limit on all games with a 10 cent edge or more.
2. bet half the limit on all games with a 10 cent edge or more, hoping the book would adjust more slowly or never adjust.

In order for #2 to be a better alternative than #1, they would have to allow me 6 weeks instead of 3 weeks before they adjusted their line. I don't think this would have happened. Plus there is the danger tha someone else with the same thoughts I did would come in and make the same plays.

So the advice here is to take advantage of any opportunities because these opportunities are fleeting.

No comments: