Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Updates to tables/charts and other random thoughts

Over the last few months, I've received a few emails asking if I had or if I was going to update some of the tables and charts in Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting. I have not updated any tables so far. If I do, I will post it on this blog.

Random thoughts
It is only May, but it is already time to start working on NFL projections!

I don't know why the media is so willing to quickly dismiss the Walsh-Goodell meeting. They seem to think that it's a useless meeting and think what Goodell will say afterwards is already predetermined. I think that is just jumping to conclusions for the sake of having to fill airtime.

The NBA playoffs has been interesting. Lebron James makes Kevin Garnett look like an ordinary player. The Spurs looked old just a few weeks ago, now they look refreshed and experienced. Why are the Jazz a bigger underdog by 2 points in Game 5 than they were in Game 2, especially given that Kobe has some back issues? If I didn't already have Utah in series bets, I'd seriously consider betting them in the pointspread in Game 5. I bet very few NBA games outright, and honestly have no documented winning record (or any real documented record to speak of on straight point spread plays), so take that for what it is worth.

Scoring has been lower in baseball. Is there a true reason behind it or is it just some randomness. I see people looking at these numbers which is fine...but some are breaking down the data too fine. The more you break down the data, the more randomness can play a part, so be careful with looking only at Petco Park data in 2008 for example.