Tuesday, October 23, 2007

World Series series price

My guesstimate for the game lines in the World Series are:

Game 1 66.0%

Game 2 63.0%

Game 3 54.0%

Game 4 50.0%

Game 5 58.0%

Game 6 63.0%

Game 7 62.0%

These game lines equates to BOS -234 (70%) in the World Series.

We'll find out if my guesstimate is accurate as the games come along. I certainly don't think my numbers are iron-clad. I would be a bit disappointed and surprised if the numbers are far different than mine, but I wouldn't be totally shocked.

For an easy way to plug in numbers and get a series price (as well as other props such as Red Sox to sweep), go to SharpSportsBetting.com and click on Prop Tools in the Links area on the left margin. Save the Excel spreadsheet and go to the tab: "King Yao's NBA Playoffs". Its set up for the NBA, but you can ignore the pointspread and just type in the probablity for the Red Sox. Using the numbers I posted, I get 70% or -234. This formula assumes the lines are consistent with zero zig-zag issues.

The zig-zag isn't as big of an issue in baseball as it is in the NBA, but it may play a part. For example, the Yankees are usually over-valued in the playoffs. IMO, there is value in betting against the Yankees in almost any playoff series. But at the same time, there is more value in betting them in the individual games because they get even more over-valued (incorrectly so IMO) when their backs are against the wall. So betting the individual games is better than the series against the Yankees. The Red Sox won't be as over-valued in the individual games as the Yankees were, but they will be slightly as they are getting a reputation for winning when facing elimination. ESPN threw out a stat that they are 14-3 when facing elimnation since 1986 (or something like that)...of course they'll only dig up that info when it serves the purpose of a story (who cares about 1986 or 1999, the players are different, they just have the same fans and wear the same shoes). The important thing to remember is that the public will here these stories, and that may sway the line 10 to 20 cents towards the Red Sox.