Thursday, August 09, 2007

Other Regular Season Win bets

Here are other Regular Season Win bets I made in Las Vegas. Rather than go into them in detail, I'll just list them all with my expected fair value numbers.

ARI Under 7.5 -110. FV -134
BAL Under 9 +120, +130. FV +109
CAR Under 9 -120. FV -152
CHI Under 10 -115. FV -141
DAL Under 9 +125, +120. FV +100
GB Under 7.5 -150. FV -173
KC Over 7.5 EVEN. FV -125
MIA Over 7 -130, Over 7.5 +130. FV -135, +118
PHI Under 9 +125, +120. FV -101
SF Under 7.5 +135, Under 8 -125, -130. FV +104, -156

Add those to the previously listed: OAK Over 5 EV, IND Under 10.5 +110 & NO Under 9.5 -120.

That's a total of 3 Overs with totals below 8. Of the 10 Unders, three of them are under 8 wins.

A couple of notes.
In the NFC, I think the best teams are: CHI, PHI, DAL and NO (with the last three very close). But I took the under in each of those teams. That's due to the large difference between AFC teams versus NFC teams. The expected line in the Super Bowl is AFC -6/-7. I run my season total estimations along with my playoff and Super Bowl simulations, so they are using the same data. I made sure the Super Bowl simulations calibrated so that the AFC is expected to win the Super Bowl about 67% of the time. Naturally, that means taking down the NFC teams a bit.

Several of my bets I made in Las Vegas have better lines in the offshore books. But frankly, I'm leary of leaving my money out there until the end of December. There are too many risks for my taste. Even if I trusted the offshore books, there can be exogenous events that they have no control over. Many of those exogenous events can't and won't happen to Las Vegas sportsbooks.

I'll revisit these 13 bets at the end of the year, and maybe in the middle. Remember, going 9-4 or 4-9 doesn't mean much either way. Just like going 6-0 in the bets I posted last year (see my book or archives in the blog), did not mean anything. The sample size is just too small.