Monday, May 08, 2006

Triple Crown wager

The Triple Crown bet is going exactly as one would guess based on history and what happened in the Kentucky Derby. One of the favorites won the race and won it by a lot. Now Barbaro is around even money in the Preakness! And if Barbaro does win the Preakness, he will surely be even lower odds in the Belmont. +250 on the Yes for a Triple Crown winner is too cheap given that he is even money in the Preakness.

We can use those numbers to predict what those numbers are predicting in terms of the odds on the horse in the Belmont.

Triple Crown winner Yes +250
Barbaro to win the Preakness: EVEN money.

Preakness: 50%
Belmont: 57.1%

50% x 57.1% = 28.6% = +250

So will Barbaro be only 57.2% to win the Belmnont given he wins the Preakness? No! That is too low!

In my article on Two Plus Two, I had a chart of the horses that were 10-1 or lower odds in the Derby that went on to win the Derby and the Preakness. On average, they increase their ETW% (expected track winning percentage) by a significant amount more than 7.1%. Go read the article, and it should be clear to you.

So my suggestion, if you can find it right now, is:

Bet X on Triple Crown Yes +250
Bet to win X on Barbaro NOT to win the Preakness at +100

If Barbaro does NOT win the Preakness, then you lose X on the TC bet, but win X on the Preakness and break even.

If Barbaro does win the Preakness, then you are now basically risking a total of 2X to win 1.5X...or buying Barbaro at 57.1% in the Belmont. The only way that will not be a good bet given he wins the Preakness is if he somehow gets injured while winning the Preakness. That is a possible risk, but a very low one.

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