Friday, February 17, 2006

SNG #5

Feb 17 2006
$20 + $2
No Limit Sit-N-Go TURBO

Place: 4 out of 10
Got lucky on one hand, and played stupidly on the last hand.

Last hand: JJ with about T3500, a shade below the average of T3750. Blinds were T75-T150, I raised it to T300. BB called. Flop is 8-4-3. He checked, I bet T900 and was raised all-in (actually I had T150 left, but it's the same). I called and was shown AA.

The opponent had been a fairly wild player for SNGs, playing more hands than typical, and raising, calling and betting more often than typical (or so it seemed). It feels like a bad call after the fact. Here are the things I need to figure out to make this determination:

What is my EV if I call and lose the pot?
What is my EV if I call and win the pot?
What is my EV if I fold?

Then I can figure out the probability I need to win the hand to figure out a break-even EV.

Fourth place: 0
Third place: 40
Second place: 60
First place: 100

If I call and lose, my EV is: 0
This is the easiest situation to figure out the EV. I actually still have T150 left, but assume I am going all-in. The T150 still has some value, but I'll save the analysis of the value of that T150 for later.

If I call and win, my EV is: +76.6
I am assuming the following as a start to the EV analysis:
3rd place: 17% x $40
2nd place: 33% x $60
1st place: 50% x $100
Total is $76.60

If I fold, my EV is: $39.00
If I fold, I will have T2300. Assuming the following percentages given T2300:
4th place: 35% x 0
3rd place: 30% x $40
2nd place: 20% x $60
1st place: 15% x $100
Total is $39.00

So by folding, I have an EV of $39
By calling and losing, my EV is $0
By calling and winning, my EV is $76.60

So I set the equation to:

$39 = Probability of winning x $76.60

Solving for "Probability of Winning", I get 50.9%

So I need to win this hand about 50.9% to make calling correct.

If I am ahead at the Flop, I can still get unlucky and lose. At the same time, if I am behind, I can still get lucky and win. So let's call those two possibilities a wash.

That leaves me with the simple analysis of: Do I have a better hand than my opponent? I need to have a better hand slightly more than 50% of the time to make a call correct.

So do I? I'm not sure, that's a tough judgement call at this point. It's not so clear cut as I had thought right after I busted out. Would he go all-in with TT or 99? What about A8 or 98 or AK? I'm not sure right is close.

All the analysis above uses crude estimates, but the final number should be close.

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