Sunday, January 22, 2006

Some props I made for the Championship games

There are a few props I like in the Championship games. They are all similar and have the same risk.

Who will score first:
I took DEN -120 and SEA -121

Will the Underdog score in the 1Q
I took CAR will not score in the 1Q at +137
I took PIT will not score in the 1Q at +136

I viewed these props in the same way. I compared the specific props using historical information from a database I compiled and looked at games where the home teams were 1 to 6 point faves. Using that database, I felt comfortable that a home team that was a favorite in that range scores first more often than the line was giving me. In fact, I had this line (who will score first) very close to the money line in the first quarter. And that makes sense since there is often only one score in the 1Q.

The other line: Will the Underdog score in the 1Q? - I valued this bet in the same manner, using my historical database. I was comfortable that it had close to the same edge as the first bet, gaining an edge of roughly 20 cents.

An important issue for me to realize is that these two wagers are very much related. If PIT or CAR scores first this weekend, then I will lose both bets. So I took these bets understanding that they are close to making the same bet twice, and both are hugely rooting for the home favorites. If I liked the road dogs in these games, maybe I would have passed on these wagers...or if I bet the props, I'd be looking to take the road dog as a partial hedge thinking that I had positive EV both ways.

No comments: