Thursday, September 29, 2005

Sports Betting: TB at even money to win the NFC South

Here is a thread I started on SSB ( regarding the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the NFC South. I've attached a link to the thread. Hopefully others will chime in to see what their opinions are.

Thread on SSB

I think the fair odds on TB to win the NFC South is about even money right now. They are 3-0, with only ATL at 2-1 and NO and CAR both at 1-2. At this point, I'm pegging them as a 2.5 point favorite against both CAR and ATL when playing in TB and a 3 point dog in CAR and ATL. If these assumptions are off, then my expectation of TB to win the South at 50% will be off. So those 4 games are the major assumptions that I need to be right on.

Aside from the divisional schedule, they have the following teams left:

at Home : DET, MIA, WAS, CHI
on Road : NYJ, SF, NE

Yes, NE will be tough...but the other 6 games look are against the relative weaklings of the league. They are a 6.5/7 point fave against DET (70% to win), they'll probably be around that against MIA, WAS and CHI - depending of course on how well those teams play up to their game against TB.

They are at NYJ next week, where I am peggin that game at even money since it will either be Testaverde or Bollinger. JAX was +2 at NYJ...without Pennington or Fiedler, I think TB at Pick is appropriate.

At SF, I figure they will be like DAL - 6.5 to 7 point faves.

At NE, they will be major dogs - probably a 5.5 point dog, close to what SD is this week at NE.

As for ATL's schedule and CAR's schedule - it's fairly close to TB's schedule. CAR has already played NE, but they've also had two home games. So the remaining schedule is really a wash for the teams. And thus it comes down to the projections of the head-to-head matchups.

Although I have said I think the odds are about even money, there are many places where it can be gotten for cheaper. Tradesports is one (my "cheap bid" of 40.4 is sitting out there). One reason I'm posting this is I've pretty much got my fill, so I'm not worried about missing any opportunities.


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