Wednesday, September 28, 2005

Sports Betting: NFL lines are becoming more and more efficient ever year

Here are two teams:
Team A has a 4-12 record in 2003 and a 5-12 record in 2004. They start off the 2005 season 0-3, covering only 1 out of the 3 games.

Team B made the playoffs in 2003, had a poor year in 2004, and is 2-1 in 2005. With a HOF head coach, the team has a shot at the playoffs.

This week, Team B is playing at Team A. What is the line?

Team A is Oakland
Team B is Dallas

The line in this game is Oakland -3 -120, Dallas +3 EVEN.

The linemakers are getting smarter. The public is getting smarter. In past years, I believe in the same situation, OAK would be a smaller than a 3 point favorite, somewhere between Pick and OAK -2. But I have been seeing more and more how the line is moved to reflect "must win" situations. OAK may be a worse team than DAL, but if so, it's not by much. However, OAK needs this game. This is their season. If they lose, they might as well give up the 2005 season. This added emotional effect moves the lin up to OAK -3.

This is one reason it is important to be flexible. Old opportunities in sports betting that were good sooner or later disappear. You can't count on the same old tricks year after year. Every year some opportunity disappears and you have to find new one's to replace the old ones.

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