Wednesday, March 19, 2008

some prop bets I made for March Madness

For March Madness props, I use market information from game lines and (more liquid) futures lines to interpret how they reflect where other odds. I know very few players or coaches in college basketball. I made these bets based on market information and manipulation of one line to another. It is possible these lines aren't available anywhere anymore. I also list my projected probability of the bet winning in percentages.

Midwest: Clemson 12-1 10%
Midwest: Kent 100-1 1.4%
Midwest: Wisconsin 9-1 10.6%

East: Washington State 17-1 6.4%

To make it to the Elite 8:
Davidson +1375 7.4%
West Virginia +1185 8.6%
Notre Dame +1250 11.6%
Oklahoma +1665 7.2%
Butler +1250 7.5%
Michigan State +955 13.9%
Marquette +835 14.1%

Texas is eliminated in the Sweet 16 +300 28.5%
Tennessee is eliminated in the Round of 32 +350 23.6%
Tennesee is eliminated in the Sweet 16 +300 29.4%
Georgetown is eliminated in the Sweet 16 +350 28.5%

Number of #1 seeds to make the Final Four: 1 +250 31.3%