Sunday, December 23, 2007

more thoughts on Week 17

I should have added this information to my article on Two Plus Two, but didn't.

Don't be afraid to bet big home favorites in Week 17. Compared to the rest of the season, home favorites do very well.

All home teams in week 17 straight-up: 253 games, 62.5%
All home teams in other weeks: 4,268 games 58.0%

Home favorites of -7.5 or greater in week 17 ATS: 45 games, 56.8%
Home favorites of -7.5 or greater in other weeks ATS: 849 games, 46.7%

The sample size is small, particularly for home favorites greater than 7.5 points. I wouldn't allow this data to force me to bet all big home favorites. But I wouldn't be afraid to take a big home favorite in week 17 like I would be in other weeks of the regular season.