Sunday, December 30, 2007

IND/TEN prop

The IND/TEN Sunday Night game is an intersting line. TEN is a 4.5-point road favorite, but IND is the favorite in the First Half and First Quarter. it is all due to the expectation that the IND starters will play the 1Q and possibly the 1H, but not in the Second Half.

For the prop "which team will score first", we only care about the early part of the game. The game is unlikely to be unscored at the half. Given that IND is favored in the 1H, they should be favored to score first. Yet, I was able to find IND to score first at +120 and +100. This is a solid prop bet because the bookmakers are too lazy or too stupid to move their lines.