Monday, December 31, 2007

Betting strategy on the Patriots in the playoffs

Talking to some non-gambling sports friends, I keep hearing the same thing: "no one can beat the Patriots in Foxborough". They are making the mistake of assuming that just because no team is expected to beat the Patriots, that it means it can't happen. I'm looking forward to seeing the Patriots being big favorites, and waiting until game time to bet against them. Non-gambling sports fans sometimes turn into gamblers during the playoffs and make the market a bit more inefficient with the new money coming in on the favorite. I think there's a good chance for that to happen.

So my strategy is to bet the Patriots in any futures (AFC or Super Bowl) at fair value. Of course, that would be based on my projected odds. Unfortunately finding them at fair value is now difficult, but fortunately for me, I did load up on them earlier in the year :)

The next part of the strategy is to hedge with a positive-EV hedge on the underdog in the point spread when the games come up. I hope to implement this strategy in every game the Pats play, as I think they'll be overvalued and/or overbet in each game.