Friday, November 30, 2007

NFL run defenses are unpredictable

In the Nov 23 issue of the ESPN magazine, Doug Drinen of writes a fantasy football article that is just as pertinent to sports bettors titled Lost Cause (sorry, I could not find an internet link).

His main argument is that there is little correlation between the top defenses against RBs in terms of fantasy points from one segment of the season to another. Whether it sliced in the first 8 games versus the last 8 games, the first four versus the next four, etc., the news is the same - there is little predictability of fantasy points given up by defenses against RBs based on the defenses past fantasy performance.

Fantasy points are different than real yards/game, yards/carry, etc., but I imagine it can't be all that different. The Indianapolis Colts run defense of last year's regular season versus playoffs seem to be a good anecdote for this idea.