Tuesday, November 06, 2007

NFL RSW mid-season update

Here is an update on the progress of the NFL Regular Season Win totals that I posted before the season began. The current values that I estimate are in Red.

ARI Under 7.5 -110. FV -134 Current FV -155. Still up in the air.

BAL Under 9 +120, +130. FV +109 Current FV -2100. BAL is 4-4. They'd have to go 5-3 to tie or 6-2 to go Over 9 wins. I'm lookingText Color good on this one. I think they only have a 4% chance of going 6-2 or better. They've got a tough schedule coming up, with 6 tough teams (CLE, SD, NE, IND, SEA and PIT).

CAR Under 9 -120. FV -152 Current FV -1063. CAR is 4-4 also, but I think they have a better chance of winning 5 or 6 than BAL does, even though I think BAL is a better team. The difference is their schedule.

CHI Under 10 -115. FV -141 This one is almost a lock. CHI is 3-5 and even if they go 6-2, I'll still win the Under.

DAL Under 9 +125, +120. FV +100 This one is dead. DAL is 7-1 and considered the best team in the NFC. It would be a shocker if they went 2-6 or 1-7 the rest of the way.

GB Under 7.5 -150. FV -173 This one is dead too. GB already has 7 wins and only needs one more to go Over.

KC Over 7.5 EVEN. FV -125 Current FV -118. This one is a coin-flip. One problem for the Over is that Larry Johnson looks like he'll be out for a couple of weeks.

MIA Over 7 -130, Over 7.5 +130. FV -135, +118. Miami is 0-8. This one is dead.

NO Under 9.5 -120 Current FV -190. After starting off 0-4, the Saints have turned it around and won their last 4 to get to .500. It will still be tough for them to get to 10 wins, but a bet that looked like a lock for me a month ago can actually turn sour now.

OAK Over 5 EV Current FV +396. Not looking good. OAK has lost a few games where the were slight favorites.

IND Under 10.5 +110 Close to being dead. The Colts defense has really shocked me, they are terrific.

PHI Under 9 +125, +120. FV -101 Close to being a winner. PHI is only 3-5 and it would be surprising to see them go 6-2 or 7-1 the rest of the way. Their head coach has personal problems and McNabb doesn't seem like he's back to early 2006 form.

SF Under 7.5 +135, Under 8 -125, -130. FV +104, -156 Close to being a winner. The 49ers are 2-6 and would have to go 6-2 to get to 8 wins.

Overall, it looks like I'll likely win 5, lose 5...and the other 3 (ARI, KC and NO) are too close to call. I'll probably have to win 2 out of those 3 to be ahead on the year in RSW bets.