Monday, October 22, 2007

There is no such thing as Destiny in sports

Here's another post blasting the media. The Red Sox came back from a 3 games to 1 deficit and go on to the World Series. It felt like the first word out of the ESPN Sportscenter broadcasters was "destiny". No, it wasn't. If it was destiny, would the Red Sox be happy losing three out of the first four games? Of course not. If it was destiny, they would have simply swept all four games and made it easy. It wasn't destiny, it was randomness. Randomness doesn't mean the Red Sox didn't deservie their win, it doesn't mean the players shouldn't try. It just means there is a certain probability that one team should beat the other, and after that, its chance from there. It is our job as sports bettors to try to determine what that probability is. Then compare the line to our expected probability. If there is a big enough difference, then we make a wager with positive EV. After that, its up to randomness whether we win or lose, not destiny.

People who believe in destiny don't care what the line is, they just bet on the team they think will win regardless of the line. They don't care about value. Of course, they are also long-term losers.