Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Small changes to Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting

Here is a list of small changes for the next printing of Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting. There aren't any major changes on the list.

Page 17, end of second paragraph.
add: "...and Jeff Brueggman.”

Page 18, end of third paragraph or insert new paragraph after third paragraph
add: “Thanks to Al Rogers of Pi Yee Press for making things run smoothly.”

Page 32, end of third paragraph.
Change: “My research shows:”
To: “Let’s assume the following distribution:”

Page 33, in “Talking Cents”, 4th sentence
There is duplication in the sentence. It should read:
“Sportsbooks understand that a cent is worth less as the line gets farther from +100, so they offer wider spreads as a result.”

Page 37, add to the second paragraph:
“Some people use ROE (return on equity) or ROR (return on risk) to mean the same as ROI. See Chapter 5 for differences between ROI and ROR when applying to scalps and middles.” (new section in Chapter 5 added for page 77)

Page 42, 7th paragraph
Change: “…get lost because the items you want to be are correlated…”
To: “…get lost because the items you want to bet are correlated…”

Page 50, 1st paragraph, 5th sentence
Insert “a field goal” in the middle of this sentence:
“On the other hand, his database may show that a touchdown is the first score more often than a field goal in a typical NFL regular season game.”

Page 57, last line on the page
Delete “like this”
The last sentence should read: “But there are other markets (delete “like this”) where individual entities…”

Page 62, 4th line
Delete “not” in 4th line
Change: “It is the few lines that are not inefficient…”
To: “It is the few lines that are inefficient…”

Page 77, after “Time Spread” and before “Conclusion” add:
Return on Risk
When analyzing the profitability of short-term scalps and middles, it is better to use ROR (return on risk) rather than ROI (return on investment). The risk of a well-executed scalp or middle is small even though a large investment is often necessary. ROI underestimates the profitability of scalps and middles in relation to other type of bets because it is not possible to lose the entire investment.

Page 96, 9th line
Insert “a” before “small window”
It should read: “There is a small window of time…”

Page 108, Table 4
Change “Fair Line” heading to “Rule of Thumb”
In the Key, change: “Fair line” reflects the fair vigorish given the numbers in the Actual column.

To: “Rule of Thumb” reflects the rule of thumb adjustment given the numbers in the Actual column.

Page 109, at the end of the first paragraph and before “My RSW Picks for 2006”, insert this paragraph:
“It is important to keep in mind that the rule of thumb is a shortcut. The rule of thumb becomes less accurate as the money line gets farther away from even money. “

Page 109, in “My RSW Picks for 2006”
Third bullet, it should read: “The expected wins for each team is less than (delete: its) what its expected wins would have been had it played a neutral schedule.”

Page 115, starting with the second paragraph, change the teams in the example from ATL to BAL and NYJ to CHI. ATL and NYJ are used in the previous example and it may confuse some people. So the section should read:

“Another issue to consider is when the accompanying money line on the point spread is not -110. Here is an example.

BAL -3 -120 CHI
CHI +3 +100 BAL

The line is shaded towards BAL -3, and the fair market line is BAL -3 -110. In that case, if you see BAL -2.5 on the parlay card……On the other hand, if the parlay card has CHI +3.5, then ……”

Page 124 in “3-point lead at the half”, second paragraph
Change: “Table 9 shows that the home team by 3 is worth 12 cents plus or minus 2 cents”
To: “Table 9 shows that the value of a half-point when the home team is -3 in the first half is worth 12 cents plus or minus 2 cents”

Page 124 in “Other valuable numbers”, add at the end:
“The push percentages for the 4 and 7 are both significantly higher in the first half than they are for the game (see Table 6 on page 117 to compare).”

Page 126, add to “Caution Using Table 7”
When a team has a playoff spot and position locked up going into the last week of the regular season, they may not play to win as they normally would. Sometimes the first-string players will play only a portion of the game while the back-up players play most of the game. These teams do not have winning as a primary goal, so the relationship between the first half and the game will not be like a typical NFL regular season. The tables in this chapter are not applicable for those games.

Page 135, first paragraph, delete the last two sentences (extraneous).
Delete: “Unforunately, most Super Bowl props are thinly bet. One wager can move the line.”

Page 154, in “Zigzag Theory”, third paragraph
Include: “in the previous game” into the first sentence.
It should read: “A refinement to the zigzag theory is to add in the qualification that the losing team in the previous game did not cover the point spread.”

Page 155, first paragraph, last sentence,
Add “in future games” to the end of the last sentence.
It should read: “Thus blindly betting the zigzag theory may be negative EV in future games.”

Page 157, first paragraph, third sentence.
Change to: “The money lines for the individual games are connected to both as well.” (delete: “the series money line and the exact series line”)

Page 171, first paragraph, last sentence.
13% should be 13.5%.

Page 174, second paragraph, second sentence
Add: “implied”
It should read: “Kentucky Derby winners always become fan favorites and always see their odds decrease (meaning an implied greater chance of winning) in the other two legs of the Triple Crown.”

Page 178, “Lower Odds in the Belmont”, 5th line
“legend” should be changed to “legendary”

Page 180 “Putting the Odds Together”, 4th paragraph
Changed “estimated expected winning percentage”
To: “adjusted expected winning percentage”

Page 181 “An Example From 2002”
Add sentence in ()
It should read: “I thought the “No” at -1050 looked like a good bet and made a wager on it (this was before I did the analysis shown in this chapter).”

Page 212, first line
Insert “not” in the second sentence. It should read:
“But that does not mean you should expect ….”

Page 227, “Embedded futures bet”
Delete: “The legality of the Jordan’s Furniture promotion is being debated as this book is being printed.”
(I don’t know of any debates)

Page 229, “Season Tickets”, last line of page
Change “those” to “regular-season”
“…There is strong demand for tickets to regular-season games, and so…”

Page 230, “Fantasy Sports”, second sentence.
Change: “same as are” to “similar to that”
“…Their evaluation techniques are similar to that used by sports bettors who bet on player proposition bets.”

Page 232.
Change “FezziksPlace.com” to “LasVegasAdvisor.com”

Page 232, after “Donbest.com”
Add: “GJUpdate.com: updates current lines and line movements.”

Page 235, near the bottom of the page, insert “he”
“Worthy has admitted he made a bad defensive play by jumping out and leaving his man uncovered.”

Glossary, add:
Efficient line: a line that accurately portrays the true odds in the sporting event