I made this post on SharpSportsBetting.com. If you have comments, please post it in the thread over there.
http://www.sharpsportsbetting.com/forums/free/nfl/index.cgi/read/12717
I made a few regular season plays last week in Vegas. One that I found fairly easily was OAK over 5 wins at even money and -110.
I thought fair value was about -159 using these line projections. The first number is the expected winning percentage for OAK, the second number is the corresponding pointspread.
DET 54% -2.5
at DEN 19% +10
CLE 56% -2.5-110
at MIA 32% +6
BYE
at SD 11% +14
KC 44% +3
at TEN 35% +4.5
HOU 52% -1
CHI 35% +4.5
at MIN 36% +3.5
at KC 28% +7
DEN 35% +5
at GB 36% +3.5
IND 30% +7
at JAX 20% +10
SD 27% +11
