NFL 2006 Power Ratings Take 1

Over the course of the year, I will update my NFL 2006 Power Ratings. I use these for futures and regular season wins. Rarely do I use them to make a specific game wager. Actually, I do the reverse. I use the game line of the upcoming week to fine-tune these Power Ratings. I use these Power Ratings to value futures, so I need to put in the fair market price for the teams in there. There is no better place to find a fair market price (or at least a comparison of fair market value between two teams) than the pointspread line of a NFL game during that week.

Each Power Rating is the probability the team would beat an average team on a neutral field. Then I add 8% for the home field.

Example, CAR is 0.63 and JAX is 0.57...game is at CAR. 0.63 - 0.57 = 0.06 + .08 = .14. That .14 is .14 greater than 50%. So I have CAR as a 64% in the money ine.

Pre-pre-season Power Ratings
Power Rating Rank
ARI 0.46 20
ATL 0.535 15
BAL 0.52 18
BUF 0.365 27
CAR 0.63 2
CHI 0.53 16
CIN 0.565 11
CLE 0.45 22
DAL 0.6 5
DEN 0.6 5
DET 0.39 26
GB 0.36 28
HOU 0.34 31
IND 0.68 1
JAX 0.57 10
KC 0.58 8
MIA 0.55 13
MIN 0.455 21
NE 0.61 4
NO 0.44 23
NYG 0.565 11
NYJ 0.36 28
OAK 0.395 25
PHI 0.545 14
PIT 0.62 3
SD 0.52 18
SEA 0.6 5
SF 0.3 32
STL 0.41 24
TB 0.53 16
TEN 0.35 30
WAS 0.575 9


I will adjust these numbers often. As the pre-season gets under way, I'll adjust them based on injuries, rookie contributions (such as a rookie QB named the Week 1 starter...a bad sign for a team for that year) and other news. During the season, I will adjust my Power Ratings based on the lines of the games in that upcoming week. If my line based on the Power Ratings is different from the game line for the week, I may make a wager based on that info, but I will also adjust my Power Ratings towards the game line. The market is very smart and I need to give it credit in the Power Ratings rather than trying to operate blindly.

For the upcoming week's games, I will use these power ratings to generate moneylines and then convert those moneylines into pointspreads. For week 1, I have the following lines (away team is first):

AWAY HOME Spread
ATL CAR -5
BAL TB -3
BUF NE -10
CHI GB 3
CIN KC -3
DAL JAX -2.5
DEN STL 3
IND NYG 2.5
MIA PIT -3.5
MIN WAS -6
NO CLE -3
NYJ TEN -2.5
PHI HOU 3
SD OAK 2.5
SEA DET 3.5
SF ARI -7

IND is already an interesting case. The line is generally IND -3.5 or -3 in the books that have early lines. That can change without much action because it is such an early line. My line is only IND -2.5, that's a big difference. It is only 0.5 points or 1 point, but that is the most important point in all of football. So I may have to adjust IND up and NYG down if that line stays that way come the week of the game.