Looking at NBA Playoff Series Moneylines and individual game moneylines

The NBA Western Conference is now tied 2-2, Phoenix vs Dallas. Game 5 in Dallas, Game 6 in Phoenix and if necessary, Game 7 in Dallas. I thought I'd use this opportunity to show how to compare the series money line, the series line and the exact games line.

At Pinnacle Sports, the money line on Game 5 is DAL -311, PHO +281. I'll simply use DAL -300 as the fair value number because it is easily converted to a round number - 75%.

In order to project the series line and the exact games line (who will win in exactly how many games), one needs to project the expected lines for each of the other two games.

Game 6:
In Game 3 & Game 4, DAL was between pick'em and a 1 point favorite in PHO. However, Game 6 is a different situation because it is an elimination game. If DAL wins Game 5, then I believe PHO will be a 1 point favorite in Game 6. The emotional factor of an elimination game can change the odds. Also, the zig-zag theory in the NBA is famously known, so it is no surprise that the team behind in the series will play with more umph. On the other hand, if PHO wins game 5, then I believe DAL will be a 1 or 2 point favorite in Game 6. Let's use 1 as the number. Let's also asume a 1 point favorite in a game equates to -107 in the money line or roughly 51.7%.

Game 7:
In order for there to be game 7, it means both PHO and DAL would have won one game. Now the zig-zag theory fades away since it is an elimination game for both teams. I believe Game 7 pointspreads are typically a bit lower than the average pointspread in the rest of the playoffs. Since DAL is a 7 point fave, -300 in the moneyline, in Game 5, I would peg them at around a 6.5 point fave, which equates to about -270 in the money line or about 73%.

So now we have all the raw numbers needed to make the calculations.

Game 5: DAL 75% PHO 25%
Game 6 if PHO wins Game 5: DAL 51.7% PHO 48.3%
Game 6 if DAL wins Game 5: DAL 48.3% PHO 51.7%
Game 7: DAL 73% PHO 27%

Here are the ways that DAL can win the series and their corresponding percentages:

Scenario 1:
Game 5: Win 75%
Game 6: Win 48.3%
75% x 48.3% = 36.2%

Scenario 2:
Game 5: Win 75%
Game 6: Lose 51.7%
Game 7: Win 73%
75% x 51.7% x 73% = 28.3%

Scenario 3:
Game 5: Lose 25%
Game 6: Win 51.7%
Game 7: Win 73%
25% x 51.7% x 73% = 9.4%

added up: 36.2% + 28.3% 9.4% = 73.9% or -283

Pinnacle's money line in the series is currently DAL -310 PHO +270. So my numbers are right in line with the market and there is no edge. In general, I have found these type of series lines vs money lines no longer present edges like they did a couple years ago at the major sportsbooks. Edges can still be found at smaller places, but they are tougher to find.

(added the following section later in the day)

With only three games left, it is much easier to evaluate the exact games lines. With the numbers we have, it is simple calculation.

DAL in 6 = 75% x 48.3% = 36.2%
DAL in 7 = (75% x 51.7% x 73%) + (25% x 51.7% x 73%) = 28.3% + 9.4% = 37.7%

PHO in 6 = 25% x 48.3% = 12.1%
PHO in 7 = (25% x 51.7% x 27%) + (75% x 51.7% x 27%) = 3.5% + 10.5% = 14.0%

Note the sums:
DAL in 6 + DAL in 7 = 36.2% + 37.7% = 73.9% (actually the answer is 74.0%, the difference is rounding error).

PHO in 6 + PHO in 7 = 12.1% + 14.0% = 26.1%