Super Bowl Squares

The Super Bowl is almost here. Squares is a popular way for the layman to gamble on the game, especially via office pools. Using a database of 4246 games from 1989 thru 2005 (but no 2005 playoff games in that database yet), I came up with this table of the value of each square. The table shows the probability that the square wins any given quarter. Since there can be an overtime, the end of the game and the end of the 4th quarter can be different. For this table, I used the end of the game.

Almost all games have a home team and an away team. Since the Super Bowl is a neutral site, the numbers show here are an average for both H/A and A/H combinations. For example, if you get the combination of 6-0, it is different than 0-6. For this table, I just average the two to give one answer. So PIT 6 SEA 0 and PIT 0 SEA 6 have the same probability in this table. I did not breakdown the table given certain totals or certain pointspreads. It's possible that may change some of the numbers a bit. I just ran them for all games, regular season and playoffs, from 1989 through 2005 (again, without the 2005 playoffs).

0/0 7.8%

This means that 7.8% of all quarters ended with 0-0 for both teams' last digit of score. It's more likely in the 1st Quarter than the end of the 3rd Quarter, but this number just averages them out.

0/0 7.8%
0/1 1.2%
0/2 0.4%
0/3 5.0%
0/4 2.8%
0/5 0.4%
0/6 1.7%
0/7 6.1%
0/8 0.6%
0/9 0.6%

1/1 0.6%
1/2 0.2%
1/3 0.8%
1/4 1.2%
1/5 0.1%
1/6 0.5%
1/7 1.4%
1/8 0.5%
1/9 0.3%

2/2 0.0%
2/3 0.3%
2/4 0.4%
2/5 0.1%
2/6 0.2%
2/7 0.4%
2/8 0.1%
2/9 0.1%

3/3 2.5%
3/4 1.6%
3/5 0.3%
3/6 1.3%
3/7 3.3%
3/8 0.4%
3/9 0.5%

4/4 1.7%
4/5 0.3%
4/6 0.8%
4/7 2.8%
4/8 0.4%
4/9 0.4%

5/5 0.1%
5/6 0.1%
5/7 0.4%
5/8 0.2%
5/9 0.1%

6/6 0.5%
6/7 1.2%
6/8 0.2%
6/9 0.3%

7/7 4.5%
7/8 0.6%
7/9 0.6%

8/8 0.2%
8/9 0.1%

9/9 0.1%