SNG #9

Feb 21, 2006

$30 + $3

No Limit Sit-N-Go

Place: 4 out of 10

SNG #10

Feb 21, 2006

$20 + $2

Place: 5 out of 10

I played these two SNGs at the same time. Both times got knocked out on situations where the risk felt like it was worth the reward.

SNG #9: down to 4 players, I'm in the SB. I have only T1000, my opponent T500. Blinds are T50/T100 I get dealt A8o and go all-in. My opponent had T400 left, and he called with his A9o. Oh well. It was worth a shot, but just didn't work out.

SNG #10: down to 5 players. I'm in the BB (T150) with KQs and T3000. A loose player raises the minimum and two player calls. I'm pretty sure the callers will fold otherwise one would have gone all-in or re-raised. I go all-in, and the loose player calls with ATo. He wins the hand. He had T1600, so I'm down to T1400. The very next hand, I'm all-in with 55 against 88. Maybe the first raise was too aggressive. I was worried about the loose player calling, he was loose enough that he may have called given he had already entered the pot. But I was very sure the other two were gone. So it was just down to him. Given the dead money of the limpers, it felt like it was worth it, but I'm not sure. With three other players in, plus my BB, the pot was already T1050, so I was in effect putting in T1750 to win T1050 (since I think only the loose first limper has a chance of calling, and he only had T1600, I was only risking T1600 + the T150 I had to put in to make up for his original raise).

I need to breakdown the following:

1. With which hands is the loose limper willing to raise the minimum pre-Flop?

2. Given he has raised the minimum, what's the probability he will call an all-in raise?

3. Given he has called an all-in raise, what are the chances of me winning the hand?

I'll try to solve them here:

1. With which hands is the loose limper willing to raise the minimum pre-Flop?

AA 6 3.1%

KK 3 1.5%

QQ 3 1.5%

AK 12 6.1%

AQ 12 6.1%

AJ 16 8.2%

AT 16 8.2%

A9 16 8.2%

A8 16 8.2%

A7 16 8.2%

A6s 4 2.0%

A5s 4 2.0%

A4s 4 2.0%

A3s 4 2.0%

A2s 4 2.0%

KQ 9 4.6%

KJs 3 1.5%

JJ 6 3.1%

TT 6 3.1%

99 6 3.1%

88 6 3.1%

77 6 3.1%

66 6 3.1%

55 6 3.1%

44 6 3.1%

2. Given he has raised the minimum, what's the probability he will call an all-in raise?

In making assumptions for every single hand, I get 58.2%.

Here are my assumptions of the hands he'd call with. Then I multiplied those probabilities that he'd call by the probability he had those hands to begin with. Summing them up, I get 58.2%

Call

AA 100%

KK 100%

QQ 100%

AK 100%

AQ 100%

AJ 80%

AT 50%

A9 30%

A8 20%

A7 10%

A6s 10%

A5s 10%

A4s 10%

A3s 10%

A2s 10%

KQ 10%

KJs 10%

JJ 100%

TT 100%

99 100%

88 100%

77 100%

66 100%

55 80%

44 60%

3. Given he has called an all-in raise, what are the chances of me winning the hand?

So 42% of the time, I win the hand uncontested.

The other 58% of the time I am called. Now I have to figure out my chances against each one of those hands.

From twodimes.net, I get:

The first number is my KQs chance of winning the hand. The second number is the probability he has that hand given he has called. The third number is the first column times the second column.

AA 17.5% 5.3% 0.9%

KK 13.3% 2.6% 0.4%

QQ 34.8% 2.6% 0.9%

AK 29.0% 10.5% 3.1%

AQ 28.5% 10.5% 3.0%

AJ 43.0% 11.2% 4.8%

AT 43.0% 7.0% 3.0%

A9 43.0% 4.2% 1.8%

A8 43.0% 2.8% 1.2%

A7 43.0% 1.4% 0.6%

A6s 43.0% 0.4% 0.2%

A5s 43.0% 0.4% 0.2%

A4s 43.0% 0.4% 0.2%

A3s 43.0% 0.4% 0.2%

A2s 43.0% 0.4% 0.2%

KQ 50.0% 0.8% 0.4%

KJs 68.0% 0.3% 0.2%

JJ 46.3% 5.3% 2.4%

TT 46.0% 5.3% 2.4%

99 48.0% 5.3% 2.5%

88 48.0% 5.3% 2.5%

77 48.0% 5.3% 2.5%

66 48.0% 5.3% 2.5%

55 48.0% 4.2% 2.0%

44 48.0% 3.2% 1.5%

Adding up the third column, I get 39.5%, I’m going to round that up to 40% for the moment to make calculations easier.

Summarizing:

42% of the time, I win the pot uncontested and my stack goes up to T3900.

58% of the time he calls.

Out of those 58% of the time that he calls:

40% of the time I win the pot, and my stack goes up to T5200

60% of the time I lose the pot, and my stack goes down to T1400

So, in total, when I raise, my stack size will be this after this hand:

42% T3900

23.2% T5200 (58% x 40%)

34.8% T1400 (58% x 60%)

With the payout structure being $100, $60 and $40, my EV (using the numbers at http://sharnett.bol.ucla.edu/ICM/ICM.html) is:

T3900 EV = $49.33

T5200 EV = $61.09

T1400 EV = $21.17

(42% x $49.33) + (23.2% x $61.09) + (34.8% x $21.17) =

$42.26

So if I raise, my EV in the SNG is $42.26

If I didn’t get involved, my EV using a stack size of T3000 = $40.76

There were a lot of guesses and estimates in this post. So a difference of $1.50 in EV may be just noise. Therefore I am going to assume that it actually didn’t make a difference if I went all-in or folded. (calling and seeing the flop is a different story though. …there are TOO many variables to figure that out with EV analysis).

Bottomline – it didn’t make a difference what I did when it comes to EV.

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