SNG #3

Feb 13 2006
Ultimate Bet $20 + $2
No Limit Sit-N-Go

Place: 5 out of 10
Comments:
Warning: there is a lot of thought rambling. I am thinking as I type this post. It is not edited!

Knocked out with A7 vs AK. Had a decent number of chips, even though I was in last place at the time of the hand. The distribution of chips among the 5 players was fairly even. The button made a small raise pre-Flop and I raised about 2x the pot in the big blind. He called. The pot was about T1100 and I had about T1300. My opponent had a bit more, around T1800.

Flop A-6-4 rainbow

I checked, hoping he had KK or QQ. If he had one of those, I didn't want to scare him off. If he had an A, it is likely he has a bigger kicker, and he will no doubt call any bet. How can I get away from going all-in? There is very little I know about the opponent. He has been playing tighter than the other tables, but he has been involved in a few hands. One way to look at it is what type of hands he is likely to have given what I have. I have an A. So there are only two other A out there. He could have the following hands with the corresponding combinations left:

AA 1
AK 8
AQ 8
AJ 8
AT 8
A9 8
A8 8
A6 6
A5 8
A4 6
A3 8
A2 8

He is less likely to have the lower Ax hands and more likely to have the higher Ax hands because he was not scared of a raise pre-Flop.

He could also have the following pocket pairs:
KK 6
QQ 6
JJ 6
TT 6
99 6
88 6
77 3
66 3
55 6
44 3
33 6
22 6

Again, he is more likely to have the upper pairs than the lower pairs.

And lastly, he could have the following non-pair hands:
KQ 16
KJ 16
KTs 4
QJ 16
QTs 4
JTs 4

But it is less likely he would play these.

The next step is to adjust the possible combinations by the probability he would have called the pre-Flop raise with those hands. That's a very subjective process and depends on the opponent. Of course I barely know how he plays, so I can only go about guessing what the typical player would play.

Here's what I came up with. The first number is the number of combinations I'm giving him credit for. And the second number is the probability that he holds that hand.

KK 6 3.7%
QQ 6 3.7%
JJ 6 3.7%
TT 6 3.7%
99 6 3.7%
88 6 3.7%
77 2 1.2%
66 2 1.2%
55 4 2.5%
44 2 1.2%
33 5 3.1%
22 5 3.1%

AA 1 0.6%
AK 8 5.0%
AQ 8 5.0%
AJ 8 5.0%
AT 8 5.0%
A9 7 4.3%
A8 6 3.7%
A6 5 3.1%
A5 6 3.7%
A4 4 2.5%
A3 4 2.5%
A2 3 1.9%

KQ 15 9.3%
KJ 10 6.2%
KTs 2 1.2%
QJ 6 3.7%
QTs 2 1.2%
JTs 2 1.2%


So now, which hands do I beat - assuming whoever is ahead on the Flop will win the hand. Sum up all the hands I beat and I get: 63.4%

KK 6 3.7%
QQ 6 3.7%
JJ 6 3.7%
TT 6 3.7%
99 6 3.7%
88 6 3.7%
77 2 1.2%
55 4 2.5%
33 5 3.1%
22 5 3.1%
A5 6 3.7%
A3 4 2.5%
A2 3 1.9%
KQ 15 9.3%
KJ 10 6.2%
KTs 2 1.2%
QJ 6 3.7%
QTs 2 1.2%
JTs 2 1.2%

And I am beaten on 36.6% of the hands he holds. Of course, he is going to go all-in with those 36.6% of his hands, and may not with the other 63.4% of the hands. In fact, out of those 63.4% hands, 31.7% (exactly half) are hands that there is no way he will call a bet.

So the way I see it, the hands he has fall into these categories:
36.6%: he has the best hand and is going all-in sooner or later.
31.7%: he has the worst hand and won't be calling any bets, but may possibly bluff
31.7%: he has the worst hand but there is some chance he will call

There is T1100 in the pot and I have T1300. Winning this pot is a big deal for me. It will propel me in the lead and give me a good chance of winning the SNG, or it will bust me if I lose the hand.

So what should I do? I think the best way to proceed is to check and let me do the betting. If he has a better Ace, I'm done, whether I bet or he bets. If he has a worse hand, I need to let him try to buy the pot and make a bet, because there is a good chance he won't call. So thinking back, the right strategy here is probably check and call. The pot is big to him too, so if he sees me checking, if he has a crap hand, he may think there is a chance he can win the pot...especially if I check both on the Flop and Turn. He may get a free card or two, but that is probably worth the risk compared to the reward of inducing him to bluff.

Can I fold this hand at any point? In order to fold (after I check of course), I will have to think his bet has a lot of information in it - that a bet means he isn't bluffing. At this stage in my experience, I am leaning towards thinking that is not the case - that a bluff is very possible...possible enough that the check-call is the right strategy here. But maybe that will change with more experience.

This is similar to the River chapter in Weighing the Odds in Hold'em Poker where the player only has a 50% chance of winning and is first to act. Although it is still the Flop - the next bet can (and maybe is likely) to be an all-in bet, so in that respect, it is like the River situation in limit hold'em. In the book, I showed that you should bet against a passive player but check against an aggressive player (remember the book is on Limit Hold'em). But in No-Limit, since someone can go all-in, a bet is going to look like an aggressive bet. So a player that is not so aggressive in limit can only make a bet the size of one big bet. But that same player can make an all-in bet (and often do in SNGs) and so it will seem aggressive. That's a big difference. Even if the player is generally passive, his possible wager (call or bet) has to be viewed as relatively aggressive when compared to the same situation in limit hold'em.