Sunday, January 22, 2006

Mistake : Trusting other people's stats

I made a mistake by making my previous post. My mistake was simply trusting someone else's statistics without researching it myself. I had read online that the Conference Final straight up winner has also covered the pointspread with a record of 58-0-2 in the last 30 years. However, after doing some research, I found the following games where that WAS NOT the case since 1989. The games are:

1995 PIT vs IND. PIT favored by 12 points, won by 4.
1991 BUF vs DEn. BUF favored by 11, won by 3.
1999 STL vs TB. STL 14.5 point faves, won by 5.
2001 STL vs PHI. STL favored by 10.5, won by 5.

So either the stat was bogus or I misread it. Either way, I made a mistake by assuming the stat was right. I have since been told that that quoted stat of 58-0-2 was on non-double digit favorites, which to me means even deeper data-mining - and is not a good thing.

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