Tuesday, August 16, 2005

NFL Season Win Over/Under bets

I was recently in Las Vegas where I put made a ton of NFL Season Win Over/Under bets. These wagers are for the whole season and is a wager on the number of wins for individual teams. It is often tough to pinpoint the exact reasoning for every play, because there are so many factors in it. Such as: Overrated/underrated teams, lucky/unlucky teams from last year that is overrated/underated this year, sexy teams that aren't as good as their media perception, strength of schedule, and changes to team's composition. So I won't go writing too much about each individual wager.

By the way, the only reason I am posting this is that I won't be betting them anymore, as I won't be going back to Vegas until after week 1 of the NFL season. This means I won't be losing any opportunity by posting what I did wager on.

IND Under 11.5 -105
IND may be the best team in the NFL, but 11.5 wins is just too much to expect from half of a team. Does everyone expect Peyton Manning to break the TD record again? A year like that is likely to be his career year. I don't see that much improvement on their defense - why didn't they sign Ty Law? In general, look for teams with Over/Under of 10 or higher and bet the under.

BAL Under 10 -120
PIT Under 10 -140
ATL Under 9.5 -125
These bets are all closely linked to the IND wager. BAL and PIT play each other twice, so even though I am laying a big vig (-120 and -140), it will be tough for me to lose both of these bets. ATL is a decent team, but an average team. Their defense was lucky and overrated last year, and that was their best unit. Vick is exciting and fun to watch when he is running around, but there are two major problems with him: 1. he's a below average passing QB. 2. he's more likely to get hurt than any other QB in the league.

I made a few other wagers, but nothing as strong as these 4 I posted. A few things to note though:

1. I am not suggesting anyone go out and make these wagers too. I am not selling my picks, just posting them on my blog. If you bet on them yourself, you do so at your own risk.

2. Although I liked these bets when I made them, and still like them now, there is nothing that would stop me from completely reversing my position at any point in the season. This may come as soon as game 2. For example, if one of the teams starts off at 2-0, and the market hasn't adjusted enough mathematically, I may very well take the other side. Yes, I may lock in a loss, but it would be a smaller expected loss than if I didn't bet it back.

3. There is a ton of luck involved in football. With only 16 games, just a few plays can change a season. If I go 4-0, it doesn't mean much. Neither does it mean much if I go 0-4.

4. Wish me luck!

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